Photo: Prime Minister, James Marape and spouse meeting with US President Joe Biden back in September 2022. Credit: Dept of Information & Communication Technology
Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific region
Looking at the Indo-Pacific region, observers came to realise that creating ties to it was quite a significant bilateral topic for developed democracies before Russia invaded Ukraine. Suddenly, these global economies shifted preferences and drew all their attention back to Europe.
Within this period when concentration had shifted, most asserted that the Indo-Pacific region was doing better, but reports have shown that Chinese dominance was consistent yet going unnoticed through maritime incursions and unnecessary military drills, all happening in the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Over several decades, China has become a substantial source of trade, aid, and infrastructure for developing Pacific Island countries, as it seeks to isolate Taiwan diplomatically and build its own set of global institutions. [1]
Biden’s visit to PNG
But later this month, US President Joe Biden is travelling to Papua New Guinea. This will be an historic event as it showcases the first United States leader to grace the shores of PNG since the Pacific nation gained independence.
Biden is stopping by Papua New Guinea for several hours on his way to Australia later this month, official and media reports have said, to highlight a renewed US commitment to the Pacific after inroads by China. [2]
Biden will be attending the Pacific Islands Forum in PNG, where 18 leaders of the region will join the leaders of Australia and New Zealand. Interestingly, Papua New Guinea will also host India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi from May 22 to 23, according to PNG's foreign minister Justin Tkatchenko. [2]
In a front-page report on PNG's Post Courier, the newspaper stated that Biden would visit the capital of Port Moresby for three hours in May, without giving a specific date. But an official in the Papua New Guinea prime minister’s office confirmed that May 22 is the expected date of the visit if it goes ahead. [3]
While this looms as a step forward for PNG, critics have had their say, lashing out that this should show us something about the neglect of the US towards Pacific Island nations over the years.
The South Pacific was seen as a relative diplomatic backwater after World War II, but it is an increasingly important arena for powers to compete for commercial, political, and military influence -- and could prove vital in any possible military conflagration over Taiwan, Agence France-Presse reported.
Last month, US special envoy Joseph Yun said the United States was playing "catch-up" after years of relative neglect in which China's influence soared across the South Pacific.
"Let's face it, it is strategic competition between China and us," he told the Hudson Institute.
"Have we neglected the Pacific? The answer is yes.... We are trying to correct that quite a bit."
China recently signed a secretive security pact with Solomon Islands, east of Papua New Guinea, that could allow Chinese troops to be deployed or based there.
And a state-backed Chinese company won a contract in March to develop the international port in the capital Honiara, a major victory in Beijing's quest to gain a strategic toehold in the South Pacific.
Biden's trip may also put the finishing touches on a US-Papua New Guinea Defence Cooperation Agreement that would allow more joint training and the development of security infrastructure.
Washington is also working to establish a joint naval facility at Lombrum on PNG's Manus Island.
China, however, has been playing the long game in the region, and has now become the biggest bilateral lender in the Pacific, much bigger than America and Australia. It had been funding major projects throughout the region -- roads, airstrips, ports, strategic assets with civilian, business, and military uses to which China has an investment in all aspects of this sectors. [1]
China's current dominance in PNG
Over several decades, China has become a significant source of trade, business, infrastructure, and aid for PNG. In November 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Papua New Guinea for several days when Port Moresby hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. China also funded much of the infrastructure for the summit, such as new roads and the APEC conference center.
Earlier this year China had raised concerns about a proposed security agreement between Papua New Guinea and Australia, which has grown cold to its erstwhile biggest trade partner. PNG's former foreign affairs minister Justin Tkatchenko confirmed this in a press conference as he returned home from his official visit to China seeking development assistance for PNG. [4]
Tkatchenko stated that the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang had raised China’s concerns on the proposed PNG-Australia Bilateral Security Treaty and its intended purposes when the two counterparts met.
Tkatchenko said: "Qin was seeking reassurances that the purported bilateral security arrangement with Australia was not in some way seeking to counter China’s influence in PNG and the Pacific."
Tkatchenko’s statement during the conference highlighted the balancing act for Pacific Island countries as China and the United States vie for influence in the vast ocean region. [4]
Last year China had pushed for even greater influence through an extensive security pact with 10 Pacific nations. Reports said it would have given China military bases in the region and even allowed them to deploy troops.
PNG along with other Pacific nations rejected it, and that might have given Biden some hope to cement the superpower's presence in the region. [4]
What is to be expected?
In fact, Joe Biden's Pacific pivot started last year when he hosted Pacific leaders in the White House in September as part of efforts to counter China's influence in the region.
During the meeting, the US President pledged financial aid and dispatched his Vice President Kamala Harris on a tour of the Pacific region. But now that he himself is on the job, the question remains if the newly established and forged relations will be enough for the US to cement its dominance in the region.
Critics have pointed out that Biden must be willing to commit to two main bilateral aspects.
Firstly, the US must commit to all financial aid that have been pledged towards the region as most small Pacific Islands need help to fight climate change, as it’s an existential threat for them and they need millions of dollars in investments to tackle it. [5]
Secondly, Biden needs to build a broad coalition, as the US alone cannot convince the Pacific region, but a broader alliance of democracies can -- which is why Indian PM Modi's presence can be a gamechanger. [5]
Over the years, many small Pacific Island nations have been let down by the US, Australia, and New Zealand, but India's inclusion may be different as it is a member of the so-called Global South and is now on the high table.
India's lessons and skills could be a key for the Pacific region, and in return it will be able to get some valuable diplomatic support, as every vote counts at the United Nations and the Pacific Forum alone has 18 votes.
All these meetings will conclude at the Opera House in Sydney where the Quad Leaders’ Summit will be held this year. The White House has said Biden will take part in a G7 leaders’ summit in Japan from May 19-21 and attend the May 24, Quad Leaders’ summit in Sydney with the leaders of Australia, Japan, and India.
References:
1) E-International Relations| The Emergence of the Indo-Pacific: Geopolitical Turn or Continuity? April 11 2023 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.e-ir.info/2023/04/11/the-emergence-of-the-indo-pacific-geopolitical-turn-or-continuity
2) PNG Report 30th April 2023 https://www.pngreport.com › news Biden to visit Port Moresby in May
3) Post Courier May 1st 2023/ by Keneath. G https://postcourier.com.pg › envoy-...Envoy: Biden visit significant for PNG
4) Australian Financial Review Jan 12, 2023 https://www.afr.com › World › Asia The upside for PNG in Australia's and China's Pacific rivalry
5) US Indo-Pacific Strategy is Widely Criticized scspi.org| http://www.scspi.org › dtfx › us-ind...
6) The White House (.gov) https://www.whitehouse.gov › state... Statements and Releases Archives
